Black Swans, the futility of prediction, and activating the apathetic.

The following is adapted from a February 7th post on Dave Rubin’s website.

Looking around, things seem good right now. Really good. I agree with Dave and many others that it seems like Trump should get re-elected easily. That said, here are the thoughts I’m kicking around as I fight the urge to fall into a an ill-advised sense of complacency.

As we look towards the not-so-distant 2020 election, it seems like there are a lot of voters in the middle saying “Give me a reason to vote.”

Despite the rhetoric of many on the enthusiastic Right, I really don’t think there’s going to be many Trump “converts.” There will definitely be some, possibly including myself. There will also be defectors, and who knows how many of those there’ll be, and what the net balance will be after all the side-switching has occurred.

With that in mind, it seems more likely that the 2020 election will be determined by the large number of presently unmotivated voters, some on the Right, but mostly on the Left. Based on Dave’s last interview with Bridget Phetasy, she seems to encompass what many in the middle/disaffected Left/frustrated Right are feeling: “I can’t bring myself to vote for Trump, but I’m not enthusiastic for the current Democrats, either.”

If my assessment is accurate, (low voter turnout in Iowa supports this, though anecdotally) then one way to look at this is from the standpoint of mitigating the circumstances that would motivate those who are not yet motivated enough to vote against President Trump.

Perhaps I’m wrong. As Ben Shapiro likes to say: “All of Trump’s flaws are baked into the cake at this point.” And on one level, Ben is right. But consider this: those of you in relationships are acutely aware of your significant other’s flaws, and the little things they do that piss you off. Yet the recency, magnitude, and combination with other flaws, directly impacts how you’re feeling that day, week, etc. It’s the difference between “We’ve been fighting lately” and “Things are pretty good right now.” Ben is right that people have mostly priced in Trump’s flaws. But come November, if he starts to go out for beers after work every night, keeps forgetting to pick up the kids, or is just kind of being “a dick,” there are a lot of Americans that’ll adopt the “We’re fighting” perspective. Those who didn’t have enough of a reason to get out and vote against Trump might suddenly find themselves with one.

The point is, there are likely to be “Black Swans” lying ahead. There are unknown circumstances that would turn apathy into activation. Those are the things I want to start looking for. Additionally, the Democrat candidate field is weak. This is just a fact. However, despite that weakness, it will still be a close election in November. That’s right, November. There’s a hell of a lot of time for things to happen that would activate those I just mentioned.

In the movie ‘World War Z’, Israel was prepared for the upcoming Zombie Apocalypse because of what they describe as “The 10th Man Rule.” Put simply, if nine of the ten leaders agreed on something, it was the obligation of the tenth man to assume they were wrong. I know we’re not necessarily facing down a World War Z scenario, though one could argue that Biden is basically a zombie, and Bernie’s policies would indeed be apocalyptic. That said, I feel very much like a “10th Man” here. I’m tremendously skeptical that Trump has this in the bag. That means we’re not far off from President Promiseimwoke, and many Democrats feeling sanguine in the radicalization of their base. Not. Good.

So here’s the what I’m trying to figure out- What are the black swans here? What are the ‘unknown unknowns’ that will activate the apathetic or frustrated voters? In other words, how can Trump beat Trump? What circumstances can make this virtually 0% about the who the Democratic nominee is, due to its unprecedented nature? What would that Democratic ticket look like? When Obama ran, all eyes were on him. Same with Trump. Without a crazy new candidate to, it’s not like all the Democrats will stay home. They’ll still vote. I want to figure out why, and what will keep the apathetic crew at home, or activate them instead.

Perhaps I’m being paranoid, and it’s possible I’ve been reading too much Taleb. I understand that zombie movies aren’t exactly the best tool to use for predicting the outcomes of presidential elections. That said, it’s worth exploring the possible land mines that would lead to this election going to the Democratic ticket. This isn’t inherently bad in and of itself, but due to the dramatic shift to the left in terms of mainstream Democrat policy positions, a victory created by black swans rather than winning people over would remove some pressure to reform within the current Democratic party platform.

Seventeen days after I writing this, Politico echoed my sentiment specifically regarding how this virus might be the “Black Swan” that will dramatically alter how this election is framed. I agree with that analysis. The 2020 election will not be about Brett Kavanaugh, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Impeachment, or border walls. This election will almost singularly hinge on three things:

1. How quickly “the worst of it” passes in the US. In other words, how quickly people are able to return to lives that are no longer disrupted by this virus.
2. How quickly the economy recovers, and things return to the stability and prosperity people have become accustomed to in the past few years.
3. What enduring fallout persists from the net loss this pandemic causes (psychologically, emotionally, financially, etc.) and where the blame for that fallout ends up being placed. The media will undoubtedly do their damnedest to ensure any negative outcome is sufficiently embellished and placed squarely at the feet of President Trump. Some of this criticism will be warranted. Much of it will not be. How much of this sentiment is shared by the American people is what will determine who the next president of the United States will be.

In conclusion, a way to consider this mathematically (though much of this will never be quantifiable ahead of time) would be with the following formula:

(A+B)-C= D (or) -D

A= People’s ability to return to some semblance of normalcy

B= What that normalcy looks like in terms of stability/comfort or instability/discomfort (be it economic or psychic)

C= Enduring fallout and ramifications from this crisis, be it locally, nationally, or globally

D= The net balance of “how people feel” about the current status quo

It’s that simple. Of course, that statement itself is an oversimplification. I’m trying to describe a process so complex in inputs that it is simultaneously true in general expression, and worthless in ability to predict anything. But then again, that’s why they’re called “Black Swans.” You can’t predict them. All you can do is seek to minimize exposure to risk, so that when they occur, the outcome is manageable. As far as how we’re managing this particular ‘unknown unknown,’ only time will tell.